According to the current Polymarket presidential election odds, Donald Trump is favored to win the election at 65.5%.
Separate investigations from Chaos Labs and Inca Digital allegedly found that approximately 30% of the 2024 United States Presidential election activity on Polymarket is the result of wash trading — a method of market manipulation designed to artificially boost volume.
According to the report from Fortune, both firms claim the actual transaction volume on the prediction platform was only $1.75 billion, compared to the $2.7 billion reported by Polymarket.
Analysts from Chaos Labs attributed this discrepancy in transaction volume to Polymarket counting shares for candidates in whole dollar amounts, despite individual shares on Polymarket trading well under $1.
